Judgement, Policy, and the Harmony Machine

Second, mathematics i s u n i n t e l l i g i b l e to most o f us . Th is i s no t j u s t because we l a c k some educa t i on , bu t more impor tan t i t i s a consequence o f i t s abs t rac tness . The s t a t i s t i c s on smoking are c o n c l u s i v e , bu t the e f f e c t on smokers has been l i m i t e d . The T reasu ry ' s model of the economy might be as good a p r e d i c t i v e dev ice as humanity can develop bu t c i t i z e n s c a n ' t see how, o r i f , t he model r e f l e c t s t he r i s e o r d e c l i n e o f economic a c t i v i t i e s t h a t a f f e c t them. We j u s t d o n ' t understand models t h a t depend upon t he i n t e r a c t i o n o f f i f t y parameters . In e f f e c t we have no bas i s f o r assess ing the persona l i m p l i c a t i o n s o f such c a l c u l a t i o n s , and they are i n e v i t a b l y d i s regarded i n i n d i v i d u a l s ' p e r s o n a l , p o l i t i c a l and economic behav iour . T h i r d l y , and consequent upon t h i s l ack o f i n t e l l i g i b i l i t y , many o f us cannot t r u s t those who d e f i n e ' r a t i o n a l s o c i a l p o l i c i e s ' even i f w e shou ld . I f we accept t he mathemat ics, w i t h o u t unders tand ing , we accept the power of t e c h n i c a l e l i t e s t o decide ma t te rs t h a t a f f e c t us w i t h o u t be ing accountab le t o us . D isas t rous medica l adv ice can e a s i l y be d ismissed as " t h e l u c k o f t he draw" . The e f f e c t s of a bad r e g u l a t i o n or economic p o l i c y " c o u l d no t have been f o r e s e e n " . Who can check? Claims t h a t p r o f e s s i o n a l e t h i c s o r p u b l i c a c c o u n t a b i l i t y p r o v i d e p roper c o n t r o l s are j u s t seen as s p e c i a l p l e a d i n g and s t a t u s quoism. Human judgement may be rough and ready bu t i t has t he huge p o l i t i c a l advantage t h a t i t can b e examined, and cha l l enged , i n t he p u b l i c arena or a c o u r t of law because we share a common language f o r d i s c u s s i n g i t . In a p o l i t i c a l sense t h e most r a t i o n a l a t t i t u d e i s t o regard a n obscure t e c h n i c a l argument as s imp ly a hostage t o f o r t u n e .